0x6db5…e279

0x6db568e61e5e3de7d87f831431b673f38ce2e279

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

0x6db5…e279: +$13K on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 65% (95% range 45%–81%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$13K
return +3.6%
Settled bets
23
$371K staked
Won
65.2%
95% range 45%–81%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 23 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$144
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$25K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$12K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY Las Vegas Aces @ 45¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces $4.2K
Oct 10 BUY Las Vegas Aces @ 76¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces $2.0K
Oct 3 BUY Pittsburgh @ 97¢
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech $5.0K
Oct 3 BUY Virginia Tech @ 90¢
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech $15K
Oct 3 BUY Virginia Tech @ 96¢
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech $1.2K
Oct 3 BUY Pittsburgh @ 55¢
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech $3.1K
Oct 3 BUY Pittsburgh @ 61¢
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech $2.0K
Sep 20 BUY Joshua Van @ 73¢
UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) $5.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed