0x6c10…df5c
Skill vs luck
0x6c10…df5c on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 19%–81%) · profit −$7.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0x6c10…df5c: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6c104a31c105ab2573a42e0f178f961e4496df5c. Data CC BY 4.0.
0x6c10…df5c: −$7.3K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 19%–81%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$1.1K
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$1.1K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$8.6K
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$3.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 72¢ | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $3.6K |
| Oct 30 | SELL No
@ 54¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 23¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $3.5K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Yes @ 82¢ | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes @ 87¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $8.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 93¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? |
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No @ 92¢ | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 4 | SELL No
@ 83¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? |
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | $2.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.