Embarrassed-Expectation
Skill vs luck
Embarrassed-Expectation on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 10%–70%) · profit −$7.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Embarrassed-Expectation: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6ac1ae55533b17b2c74ec4aceb0d8a483ca71316. Data CC BY 4.0.
Embarrassed-Expectation: −$7.2K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 10%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$7.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY Yes @ 56¢ | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31? ↗ | $6.8K |
| Oct 31 | BUY FURIA @ 65¢ | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA - Map 4 Winner ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 31 | SELL FURIA @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $9.4K |
| Oct 31 | BUY FURIA @ 83¢ | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Nemiga @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner ↗ | $7.9K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-30? |
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-30? | $1.7K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Grizzlies @ 94¢ | Grizzlies vs. Kings ↗ | $2.1K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.