Alarmed-Controller
0x69e369c82246d861e18bb24bc425f7f5ba36761f
Alarmed-Controller: −$7.3K on 45 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 18% (95% range 9%–31%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$7.3K
return −26.9%
Settled bets
45
$27K staked
Won
17.8%
95% range 9%–31%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$9.8K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.1K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$1.4K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5 |
1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5 | $5.1K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
SC Braga vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 |
SC Braga vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 | $2.9K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Cádiz CF vs. CD Leganés: O/U 2.5 |
Cádiz CF vs. CD Leganés: O/U 2.5 | $1.5K |
| Sep 30 | SELL Team Phantasma
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Team Phantasma vs Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage |
LoL: Team Phantasma vs Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage | $2.1K |
| Sep 27 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa WFC: O/U 1.5 |
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa WFC: O/U 1.5 | $13K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 2.5 |
VfB Stuttgart vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 2.5 | $1.4K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Dplus KIA Challengers
@ 99.9¢
LoL: FENNEL vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group C |
LoL: FENNEL vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group C | $1.0K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Serbia vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 |
Serbia vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.