First-Sousaphone
0x64c4a7437742d07356774cad6d55dcd9cf411018
First-Sousaphone: +$11K on 53 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 34%–60%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$11K
return +16.8%
Settled bets
53
$67K staked
Won
47.2%
95% range 34%–60%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 38 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$975
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$9.7K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$534
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 58¢
Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 |
Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 7 | BUY GAM Esports
@ 36¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 67¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner | $3.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Daniil Medvedev
@ 59¢
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev |
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 70¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $2.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY JD Gaming
@ 96¢
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | $1.9K |
| Oct 5 | BUY MOUZ
@ 36¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 44¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.