Practical-Definition
0x613bfbb81d9e5398bff208da4ae848e7a73e823a
Practical-Definition: +$36K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 47%–91%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$36K
return +31.5%
Settled bets
12
$113K staked
Won
75.0%
95% range 47%–91%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$36K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$832
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BUY Colts
@ 66¢
Colts vs. Commanders |
Colts vs. Commanders | $1.7K |
| Oct 2 | SELL Steelers
@ 62¢
Steelers vs. Browns |
Steelers vs. Browns | $2.5K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Philadelphia Phillies
@ 40¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves | $7.6K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Bears
@ 58¢
Eagles vs. Bears |
Eagles vs. Bears | $11K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Rams
@ 85¢
Rams vs. Broncos |
Rams vs. Broncos | $8.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Indiana
@ 86¢
Northwestern vs. Indiana |
Northwestern vs. Indiana | $7.0K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Falcons
@ 91¢
Falcons vs. Packers |
Falcons vs. Packers | $27K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Bengals
@ 77¢
Bengals vs. Texans |
Bengals vs. Texans | $11K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.