Steep-Tummy

0x5bc68aaadcd547a6e2047dfbd1d12593591beff4

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Steep-Tummy: −$2.6K on 20 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 45% (95% range 26%–66%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$2.6K
return −5.7%
Settled bets
20
$46K staked
Won
45.0%
95% range 26%–66%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$140
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$8.8K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$6.3K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 95¢
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-09?
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-09? $4.0K
Oct 9 BUY Alexander Zverev @ 94¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu $4.0K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 87¢
Will England win on 2026-10-06?
Will England win on 2026-10-06? $2.0K
Oct 5 BUY JD Gaming @ 86¢
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner $8.0K
Oct 4 BUY Yes @ 58¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? $6.1K
Oct 4 BUY KT Rolster @ 94¢
LoL: RED Canids vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner
LoL: RED Canids vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner $4.0K
Oct 4 SELL Mirra Andreeva @ 99.9¢
China Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Mirra Andreeva
China Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Mirra Andreeva $3.3K
Oct 4 SELL Mirra Andreeva @ 99.9¢
China Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Mirra Andreeva
China Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Mirra Andreeva $1.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed