Pertinent-Subcomponent
0x5ab39ab2e6cc1c214d8cf274962d81c6136143ab
Pertinent-Subcomponent: −$5.1K on 36 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 35%–66%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$5.1K
return −12.4%
Settled bets
36
$41K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 35%–66%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 20 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.8K
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- −$1.9K
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- −$1.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 99.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 5-11? |
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 5-11? | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 5-11? |
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 5-11? | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 5-11? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 5-11? | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 95¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 10? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 10? | $3.5K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 10? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 10? | $1.6K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Yes
@ 94¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 9? | $1.4K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Yes
@ 65¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 9? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 9? | $2.0K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4? | $2.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.