Prickly-Barrel

0x558f2f82cf0394c28ce3c8e117ee747aeab51a56

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Prickly-Barrel: +$2.2K on 37 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 62% (95% range 46%–76%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.2K
return +2.1%
Settled bets
37
$105K staked
Won
62.2%
95% range 46%–76%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 37 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$9.0K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$11K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY South Florida @ 45¢
Spread: South Florida (-3.5)
Spread: South Florida (-3.5) $1.8K
Oct 8 BUY Bruins @ 64¢
Spread: Utah (-1.5)
Spread: Utah (-1.5) $5.6K
Oct 6 BUY Over @ 48¢
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 58.5
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 58.5 $1.9K
Oct 4 BUY Chargers @ 50¢
Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)
Spread: Seahawks (-9.5) $1.9K
Oct 4 BUY Buccaneers @ 60¢
Spread: Packers (-10.5)
Spread: Packers (-10.5) $1.7K
Oct 4 BUY Ravens @ 51¢
Spread: Ravens (-21.5)
Spread: Ravens (-21.5) $2.1K
Oct 4 BUY Cardinals @ 46¢
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
Spread: Giants (-1.5) $1.3K
Oct 4 BUY Under @ 41¢
Rams vs. Eagles: O/U 33.5
Rams vs. Eagles: O/U 33.5 $3.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed