Dismal-Sousaphone
Skill vs luck
Dismal-Sousaphone on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 17% (95% range 3%–56%) · profit +$960. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Dismal-Sousaphone: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x556a78ef768757985ea9a90e6f9e3082f2585f0f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Dismal-Sousaphone: +$960 on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 17% (95% range 3%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$974
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$15
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Jan-Lennard Struff @ 99¢ | European Open: Arthur Fils vs Jan-Lennard Struff ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Liquid @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Liquid (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 24 | SELL TheMongolz @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Maryville University
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs |
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs | $1.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 52¢ | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Gabriele Piraino @ 99.9¢ | Palermo: Jay Clarke vs Gabriele Piraino ↗ | $1.4K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?