Straight-Recipient
0x540d7ca774ceee03806de41df88fad996351c8f9
Straight-Recipient: −$25K on 39 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 49% (95% range 34%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$25K
return −25.8%
Settled bets
39
$98K staked
Won
48.7%
95% range 34%–64%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$6.8K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$6.5K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$39K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | BUY Aurora
@ 48¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $9.8K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 67¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $4.8K |
| Sep 26 | SELL Xtreme Gaming
@ 55¢
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | $2.6K |
| Sep 26 | SELL Xtreme Gaming
@ 45¢
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | $5.2K |
| Sep 26 | BUY GamerLegion
@ 49¢
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner | $1.8K |
| Sep 24 | SELL GamerLegion
@ 33¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | $1.4K |
| Sep 24 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 75¢
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $3.0K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 59¢
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $8.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.