Grown-Fence
0x4f1d5ae26fc31472966e951af3183308736d8de2
Grown-Fence: −$4.4K on 28 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 82% (95% range 64%–92%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$4.4K
return −7.4%
Settled bets
28
$60K staked
Won
82.1%
95% range 64%–92%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 28 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$32
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$4.6K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$125
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.6¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 90¢
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? |
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.