Crooked-Cane-Petition
0x4a7708ba98bddc8be759c5d8a6bef54450d2e59d
Crooked-Cane-Petition: −$1.1K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 64% (95% range 35%–85%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$1.1K
return −8.3%
Settled bets
11
$13K staked
Won
63.6%
95% range 35%–85%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.4K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$2.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 35¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $1.2K |
| Sep 27 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 44¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Sep 27 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 55¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Sep 26 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 25¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Sep 26 | SELL Aurora
@ 35¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $1.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 59¢
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $1.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY 1win
@ 60¢
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Aurora
@ 55¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.