Tangible-Replacement
0x457f89ae6fb64ace63f595378c0a2959cb422a64
Tangible-Replacement: −$32K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 35% (95% range 17%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$32K
return −26.6%
Settled bets
17
$120K staked
Won
35.3%
95% range 17%–59%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$25K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$3.2K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$3.7K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | BUY No
@ 31¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-27? |
Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-27? | $1.6K |
| Sep 27 | BUY No
@ 31¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-27? |
Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-27? | $11K |
| Sep 27 | BUY No
@ 30¢
Will Germany win on 2026-09-27? |
Will Germany win on 2026-09-27? | $2.6K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Yes
@ 51¢
Will France win on 2026-09-28? |
Will France win on 2026-09-28? | $3.3K |
| Sep 21 | BUY No
@ 29¢
Will Austria win on 2026-09-24? |
Will Austria win on 2026-09-24? | $1.2K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Over
@ 49¢
ACF Fiorentina vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 |
ACF Fiorentina vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 | $9.6K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Over
@ 72¢
CA Osasuna vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 |
CA Osasuna vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 | $15K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 25¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? |
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.