New-Headlight
Skill vs luck
New-Headlight on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$9.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “New-Headlight: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x414b394fbf7a06d3efc58934bd1602ff08c80d3f. Data CC BY 4.0.
New-Headlight: +$9.7K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.2K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$11K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | SELL No @ 73¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Yes @ 73¢ | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $6.6K |
| Oct 25 | BUY No @ 70¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $4.0K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 60¢ | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 21¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.1K |
| Aug 29 | BUY Yes @ 62¢ | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29? ↗ | $1.2K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?