Drab-Funding

0x412fe1a101554f0b382181c3af932e4b2d8030fa

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Drab-Funding: +$9.5K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 28% (95% range 13%–51%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$9.5K
return +14.8%
Settled bets
18
$64K staked
Won
27.8%
95% range 13%–51%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 14 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$9.9K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$19K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 3 BUY LGD Gaming @ 64¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner $13K
Sep 27 BUY Jets @ 17¢
Jets vs. Lions
Jets vs. Lions $1.1K
Sep 26 BUY Ole Miss @ 20¢
Ole Miss vs. Florida
Ole Miss vs. Florida $2.0K
Sep 26 BUY Yes @ 25¢
Will England win on 2026-09-26?
Will England win on 2026-09-26? $1.4K
Sep 23 BUY SU Esports @ 60¢
LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C
LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C $1.9K
Sep 23 SELL Conventus Stellarum @ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Conventus Stellarum - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Conventus Stellarum - Game 1 Winner $1.5K
Sep 20 BUY Dolphins @ 11¢
Dolphins vs. 49ers
Dolphins vs. 49ers $1.2K
Sep 20 BUY Browns @ 26¢
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Browns vs. Buccaneers $8.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed