Muddy-Deployment
0x40a75505ba4e7deb9bf55e839e5a34dd6c9becb7
Muddy-Deployment: −$3.4K on 28 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 89% (95% range 73%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$3.4K
return −6.1%
Settled bets
28
$56K staked
Won
89.3%
95% range 73%–96%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 28 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$175
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$3.1K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$497
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 75¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.5K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Malmö
@ 98¢
SHL: Luleå vs. Malmö |
SHL: Luleå vs. Malmö | $2.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Chiefs
@ 98¢
Chiefs vs. Raiders |
Chiefs vs. Raiders | $2.9K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Vikings
@ 99.73¢
Dolphins vs. Vikings |
Dolphins vs. Vikings | $1.5K |
| Sep 27 | BUY South Florida
@ 99.34¢
South Florida vs. Bowling Green |
South Florida vs. Bowling Green | $2.0K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Utah
@ 99.9¢
Utah vs. Iowa State |
Utah vs. Iowa State | $1.2K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Under
@ 53¢
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 63.5 |
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 63.5 | $1.1K |
| Sep 20 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Kalmar FF vs. BK Hacken end in a draw? |
Will Kalmar FF vs. BK Hacken end in a draw? | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.