Kind-Scenery
0x3e3d362468e8676196bc374203ec242f40f5d674
Kind-Scenery: −$4.7K on 49 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 96% (95% range 86%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.7K
return −3.1%
Settled bets
49
$153K staked
Won
95.9%
95% range 86%–99%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 49 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$303
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$1.3K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$3.8K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99.79¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? | $3.9K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 8? |
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 8? | $2.8K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 7? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 7? | $2.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 99.78¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on October 6? |
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on October 6? | $2.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 3? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 3? | $3.5K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 99.74¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 3? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 3? | $4.0K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 99.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 2? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 2? | $3.5K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 99.69¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 1? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 1? | $4.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.