Fat-Solidarity
0x3a090da22b2bcfee0f3125a26265efbcd356f9f7
Fat-Solidarity: −$75K on 87 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 41% (95% range 32%–52%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$75K
return −25.2%
Settled bets
87
$297K staked
Won
41.4%
95% range 32%–52%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 87 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$21K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$21K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$33K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 70¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 46¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 45¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 73¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 72¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 34¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $2.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 56¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner | $4.7K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Team Liquid
@ 53¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner | $2.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.