Heartfelt-Discipline
Skill vs luck
Heartfelt-Discipline on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 19%–81%) · profit +$5.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Heartfelt-Discipline: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x38ac3bdedcb9f849d1dd212f68f87d4d16f6f9b7. Data CC BY 4.0.
Heartfelt-Discipline: +$5.4K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 19%–81%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$1.9K
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$7.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY FC Barcelona @ 56¢ | Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) ↗ | $7.6K |
| Oct 31 | BUY AS Roma
@ 39¢
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) |
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) | $3.0K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Yes @ 22¢ | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31? ↗ | $3.3K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Lakers @ 93¢ | Lakers vs. Warriors ↗ | $6.7K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $12K |
| Sep 19 | BUY LYON @ 63¢ | LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs ↗ | $1.9K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.