Definitive-Yin
Skill vs luck
Definitive-Yin on Polymarket: 35 settled bets · won 97% (95% range 86%–100%) · profit −$13K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Definitive-Yin: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x34e8ef69c858b7f7e81d35ae2ae83593cf09065d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Definitive-Yin: −$13K on 35 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 97% (95% range 86%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 35 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$13K
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$84
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$52
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$60
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$70
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 99.77¢ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2? ↗ | $14K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Yes
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1? | $3.0K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No @ 99.9¢ | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 31 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October? |
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October? | $1.2K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 23? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 23? | $12K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 22? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 22? | $17K |
| Oct 17 | BUY No
@ 99.89¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 12-18? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 12-18? | $3.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 12-18? |
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 12-18? | $4.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.