Unsteady-Quinoa

0x33287eae7e55b86c9b4cf4c53444f062d2dbe6b8

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Unsteady-Quinoa: −$8.1K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 36% (95% range 20%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$8.1K
return −7.5%
Settled bets
22
$108K staked
Won
36.4%
95% range 20%–57%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$4.2K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$5.2K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$7.1K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 70¢
Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?
Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? $7.1K
Sep 20 BUY No @ 22¢
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-20?
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-20? $1.1K
Sep 19 BUY No @ 28¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19? $1.3K
Sep 16 BUY No @ 40¢
Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-09?
Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-09? $3.0K
Sep 16 BUY Yes @ 73¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-16?
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-16? $15K
Sep 15 BUY No @ 27¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-15?
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-15? $1.1K
Sep 15 SELL Yes @ 80¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15?
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? $20K
Sep 13 BUY Yes @ 79¢
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-09-13?
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-09-13? $7.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed