Busy-Catalysis
0x31c7bf2b86812bb8bb125e56c6ca14734889eca3
Busy-Catalysis: −$4.9K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 41% (95% range 22%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.9K
return −23.0%
Settled bets
17
$21K staked
Won
41.2%
95% range 22%–64%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$951
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- −$556
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- −$3.4K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
TSV Hartberg vs. Austria Lustenau: O/U 2.5 |
TSV Hartberg vs. Austria Lustenau: O/U 2.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 67¢
Exact Score: Any Other Score? |
Exact Score: Any Other Score? | $2.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Azerbaijan
@ 68¢
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) |
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) | $2.9K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Nongshim RedForce
@ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) | $8.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Nongshim RedForce
@ 59¢
Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) | $1.9K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Team Liquid
@ 99.9¢
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) |
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | $1.9K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Team Liquid
@ 54¢
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) |
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | $1.2K |
| Sep 26 | BUY M80
@ 90¢
Counter-Strike: M80 vs DENDELE CS - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: M80 vs DENDELE CS - Map 2 Winner | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.