Dual-Politics
Skill vs luck
Dual-Politics on Polymarket: 16 settled bets · won 31% (95% range 14%–56%) · profit −$6.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Dual-Politics: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2707f2e693b3d20b5a17b603c532571108140afa. Data CC BY 4.0.
Dual-Politics: −$6.2K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 31% (95% range 14%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$3.0K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$6.9K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$3.3K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$411
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 51¢ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes @ 59¢ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes @ 53¢ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 25 | SELL No @ 55¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? ↗ | $3.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 29¢ | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 15 | SELL No
@ 15¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? | $1.5K |
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 49¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? | $1.1K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Yes @ 99.17¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?