Snappy-Basketball

0x26b46988d027c6c03cfa12a7c0c6d778be49b8a9

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Snappy-Basketball: +$22K on 246 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 38%–51%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$22K
return +0.9%
Settled bets
246
$2.45M staked
Won
44.3%
95% range 38%–51%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 159 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$45K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$64K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$3.0K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

BUY $12K
bought Over @ 63¢ → now 78¢ (+$2.9K)

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Polina Iatcenko @ 66¢
Samsun: Polina Iatcenko vs Dalma Galfi
Samsun: Polina Iatcenko vs Dalma Galfi $6.0K
Oct 7 BUY Polina Iatcenko @ 66¢
Samsun: Polina Iatcenko vs Dalma Galfi
Samsun: Polina Iatcenko vs Dalma Galfi $11K
Oct 7 BUY Miguel Damas @ 61¢
Braga: Johan Nikles vs Miguel Damas
Braga: Johan Nikles vs Miguel Damas $18K
Oct 7 BUY Marco Cecchinato @ 69¢
Braga: Marco Cecchinato vs Olle Wallin
Braga: Marco Cecchinato vs Olle Wallin $16K
Oct 7 SELL Anna Blinkova @ 99¢
Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova
Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova $35K
Oct 7 BUY Anna Blinkova @ 59¢
Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova
Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova $8.9K
Oct 7 BUY Anna Blinkova @ 64¢
Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova
Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova $19K
Oct 7 BUY Zhizhen Zhang @ 58¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac $15K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed