Only-Gutter
0x23c8a4c266d10ba5846837eac391fea89ed6f293
Only-Gutter: −$18K on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 26% (95% range 13%–47%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$18K
return −21.3%
Settled bets
23
$85K staked
Won
26.1%
95% range 13%–47%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$3.3K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$14K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$35K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
In the live feed
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 56¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 58¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 41¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 33¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $7.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 32¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $4.3K |
| Oct 3 | SELL LGD Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | $6.0K |
| Sep 30 | SELL Team Nemesis
@ 38¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B | $1.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Team Nemesis
@ 31¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $1.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.