Ashamed-Communicant

0x1d210989cb55aad6ae080c7d989c82d04708dba6

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Ashamed-Communicant: +$677 on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 96% (95% range 81%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$677
return +0.6%
Settled bets
26
$115K staked
Won
96.2%
95% range 81%–99%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 25 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$19
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$54
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$604
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Lakers @ 99.87¢
Kings vs. Lakers
Kings vs. Lakers $1.2K
Oct 7 BUY Pelicans @ 99.86¢
Pelicans vs. Thunder
Pelicans vs. Thunder $7.0K
Oct 5 BUY Yes @ 96¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 on October 5?
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 on October 5? $4.8K
Oct 3 BUY Under @ 99.9¢
Albacete Balompié vs. SD Eibar: O/U 4.5
Albacete Balompié vs. SD Eibar: O/U 4.5 $2.5K
Oct 2 BUY Under @ 99.9¢
Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5
Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 $2.0K
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 92¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? $3.7K
Oct 1 BUY Over @ 99¢
Maldives vs. Lebanon: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Maldives vs. Lebanon: 1st Half O/U 0.5 $2.5K
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 87¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? $1.7K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed