Foolish-Mango

0x1b47e9b128e6b671edebfb2cac23dd3efc40d814

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$89K
return −7.6%
Settled bets
222
$1.18M staked
Won
48.2%
95% range 42%–55%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 222 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$10K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$46K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$33K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 6 Bought No at 23¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? $1.5K
Oct 6 Bought BetBoom Team at 57¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.6K
Oct 6 Bought PARIVISION at 65¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $2.4K
Oct 6 Bought No at 97¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06?
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06? $1.2K
Oct 5 Bought Team Falcons at 41¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $2.9K
Oct 4 Bought 49ers at 65¢
Broncos vs. 49ers
Broncos vs. 49ers $4.0K
Oct 4 Bought 49ers at 64¢
Broncos vs. 49ers
Broncos vs. 49ers $2.3K
Oct 4 Bought 49ers at 57¢
Broncos vs. 49ers
Broncos vs. 49ers $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed