Overlooked-Moment
0x19ae9efef67c685a8581d631d99267b1ff10395c
Overlooked-Moment: +$21K on 110 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 34%–52%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$21K
return +5.8%
Settled bets
110
$362K staked
Won
42.7%
95% range 34%–52%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 108 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1.1K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$35K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$13K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY 1win
@ 29¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | SELL 1win
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $2.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY MOUZ
@ 62¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | $3.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY 1win
@ 33¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $1.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Nongshim RedForce
@ 41¢
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $1.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY FURIA
@ 40¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner | $3.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Nongshim RedForce
@ 41¢
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 19¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.