Dear-Blackboard

0x161775688df7b868f2194f2a1eee7b78c552d790

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Dear-Blackboard: +$6.9K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 55% (95% range 28%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$6.9K
return +51.6%
Settled bets
11
$13K staked
Won
54.5%
95% range 28%–79%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$1.3K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$4.9K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$607
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 63¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09?
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? $1.5K
Oct 8 BUY Yes @ 55¢
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-08?
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-08? $2.0K
Oct 1 SELL No @ 63¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? $4.1K
Sep 20 BUY Yes @ 52¢
Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20?
Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20? $1.5K
Sep 19 SELL Yes @ 99.9¢
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-19?
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-19? $5.9K
Sep 19 BUY Yes @ 51¢
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-19?
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-19? $3.0K
Sep 19 SELL No @ 99.9¢
Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-19?
Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-19? $3.3K
Sep 12 BUY Yes @ 60¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12?
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed