Incomplete-Suppression-Theory
0x125a399cc5cb7cf7cbe8f010a05f0ed673374f02
Incomplete-Suppression-Theory: +$3.0K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 39%–82%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$3.0K
return +10.0%
Settled bets
16
$30K staked
Won
62.5%
95% range 39%–82%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$4.0K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$7.0K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY BYU
@ 54¢
Spread: BYU (-10.5) |
Spread: BYU (-10.5) | $6.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Over
@ 53¢
New Mexico State vs. Florida International: O/U 45.5 |
New Mexico State vs. Florida International: O/U 45.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Milwaukee Brewers
@ 50¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres | $2.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Under
@ 50¢
Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 6.5 |
Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 6.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Red Wings
@ 53¢
Senators vs. Red Wings |
Senators vs. Red Wings | $1.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Over
@ 56¢
Predators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5 |
Predators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5 | $2.3K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Up
@ 56¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | $1.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Up
@ 81¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.