Stale-Glue

0x1250846658e2a118930edb02e31f7a7e82258f99

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$66K
return −23.1%
Settled bets
63
$285K staked
Won
42.9%
95% range 31%–55%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 36 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$8.1K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$8.7K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$83K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Sold Panthers at 99.9¢
Panthers vs. Kings
Panthers vs. Kings $2.1K
Oct 7 Sold Nuggets at 99.9¢
Nuggets vs. Jazz
Nuggets vs. Jazz $1.1K
Oct 6 Bought Aliona Falei at 45¢
Suzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Aliona Falei
Suzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Aliona Falei $1.5K
Oct 4 Bought Baylor at 81¢
Baylor vs. Arizona State
Baylor vs. Arizona State $1.4K
Oct 3 Bought Alex Bolt at 60¢
Jingshan: Lloyd Harris vs Alex Bolt
Jingshan: Lloyd Harris vs Alex Bolt $1.2K
Oct 3 Bought Alex Bolt at 58¢
Jingshan: Lloyd Harris vs Alex Bolt
Jingshan: Lloyd Harris vs Alex Bolt $5.0K
Oct 3 Bought Quentin Halys at 73¢
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys $5.0K
Oct 3 Sold Denis Shapovalov at 99¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Tabilo $5.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed