Careful-Noir-Equinox
0x122b758a408246a180efeb5ba654e21b553fac59
Careful-Noir-Equinox: −$21K on 133 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 41%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$21K
return −7.5%
Settled bets
133
$285K staked
Won
49.6%
95% range 41%–58%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 78 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$13K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$6.4K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$1.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | SELL Yes
@ 13¢
Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-10? | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Over
@ 51¢
Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5 |
Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5 | $2.6K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Yes
@ 54¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-10? |
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-10? | $2.1K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5 |
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5 | $9.5K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Over
@ 95¢
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5 |
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 69¢
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-10-09? |
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-10-09? | $2.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 25¢
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-10-09? |
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-10-09? | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Over
@ 72¢
CA Paranaense vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 |
CA Paranaense vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.