Cloudy-Leaker
0x0a26054fe174697bf6be759c4b600fdb830d1851
Cloudy-Leaker: −$12K on 32 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 34% (95% range 20%–52%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$12K
return −26.1%
Settled bets
32
$47K staked
Won
34.4%
95% range 20%–52%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$8.8K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$3.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | BUY No
@ 84¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? |
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | $3.8K |
| Sep 7 | BUY No
@ 81¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? |
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | $1.0K |
| Aug 31 | SELL No
@ 79¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? |
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? | $1.3K |
| Aug 31 | SELL No
@ 94¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? |
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? | $2.4K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Under
@ 75¢
Manchester United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Ipswich Town FC O/U 1.5 |
Manchester United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Ipswich Town FC O/U 1.5 | $1.0K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Under
@ 70¢
Manchester United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Ipswich Town FC O/U 1.5 |
Manchester United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Ipswich Town FC O/U 1.5 | $3.0K |
| Aug 30 | SELL No
@ 96¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August? | $3.2K |
| Aug 30 | SELL Brighton & Hove Albion FC
@ 94¢
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) |
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.