Official-Arrogance

0x0944e4da1f949b201a136d73f488d03c0c506771

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Official-Arrogance: +$3.6K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 83% (95% range 44%–97%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$3.6K
return +50.2%
Settled bets
6
$7.2K staked
Won
83.3%
95% range 44%–97%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$885
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$2.7K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Columbia @ 56¢
Spread: Columbia (-1.5)
Spread: Columbia (-1.5) $1.4K
Oct 8 BUY Golden Knights @ 63¢
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights $1.3K
Oct 7 BUY Ravens @ 53¢
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)
Spread: Falcons (-3.5) $1.1K
Oct 6 BUY Panthers @ 50¢
Panthers vs. Eagles
Panthers vs. Eagles $1.1K
Sep 28 BUY Over @ 54¢
Cardinals vs. Giants: O/U 43.5
Cardinals vs. Giants: O/U 43.5 $1.1K
Sep 19 BUY Over @ 51¢
Montana vs. Oregon State: O/U 54.5
Montana vs. Oregon State: O/U 54.5 $1.2K
Sep 14 BUY Under @ 55¢
Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5
Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5 $1.1K
Sep 12 BUY Over @ 55¢
Western Illinois vs. Wisconsin: O/U 50.5
Western Illinois vs. Wisconsin: O/U 50.5 $1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed