Flawed-Infinite
0x081e14554b92ee3dc53a21bd5b01f306692ef76e
Flawed-Infinite: −$58K on 188 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 42% (95% range 35%–49%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$58K
return −13.5%
Settled bets
188
$432K staked
Won
41.5%
95% range 35%–49%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 152 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$15K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$21K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$22K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | SELL Daniil Medvedev
@ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | SELL MOUZ
@ 79¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY MOUZ
@ 54¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Jonas Forejtek
@ 69¢
Palermo: Michele Ribecai vs Jonas Forejtek |
Palermo: Michele Ribecai vs Jonas Forejtek | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Lorenzo Musetti
@ 40¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Karen Khachanov
@ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery | $2.5K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Aurora Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | $2.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Elina Svitolina
@ 56¢
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elina Svitolina |
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elina Svitolina | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.