Generous-Nightlight-Auto

0x02911ceb589252dcb7c38e0dfef27632deb7034b

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Generous-Nightlight-Auto: −$2.6K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 43%–90%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$2.6K
return −7.8%
Settled bets
11
$33K staked
Won
72.7%
95% range 43%–90%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$2.6K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Buccaneers @ 64¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys $2.4K
Oct 9 BUY Cowboys @ 75¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys $1.4K
Oct 9 BUY Buccaneers @ 25¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys $1.3K
Oct 9 BUY Cowboys @ 88¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys $1.5K
Oct 6 BUY Falcons @ 88¢
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons vs. Saints $2.6K
Oct 5 BUY Panthers @ 80¢
Lions vs. Panthers
Lions vs. Panthers $2.0K
Oct 4 BUY Vikings @ 77¢
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Dolphins vs. Vikings $3.3K
Oct 4 BUY Seahawks @ 80¢
Chargers vs. Seahawks
Chargers vs. Seahawks $1.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed