Spicy-Print
Skill vs luck
Spicy-Print on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$81. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Spicy-Print: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x022c64c0c56ef5789ef985dae34a4f9a7e934873. Data CC BY 4.0.
Spicy-Print: +$81 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$205
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$124
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 83¢ | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 88¢ | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 25 | SELL No @ 92¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 14 | SELL No @ 99¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 11 | SELL No @ 95¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No @ 93¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Sep 30 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? |
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | $1.9K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?