Arid-Woodwind-Divorce
Skill vs luck
Arid-Woodwind-Divorce on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$7.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Arid-Woodwind-Divorce: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xffcd8cfcc551e78f6585ca5d5748b3b411bd5935. Data CC BY 4.0.
Arid-Woodwind-Divorce: +$7.7K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$7.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Liquid
@ 61¢
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) | $6.2K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Liquid @ 31¢ | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B ↗ | $3.1K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Movistar KOI @ 38¢ | LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $3.2K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.