Shameful-Delay
0xff81cc85838ce8f91a7d4ae2eeddadfa3f8444c9
Shameful-Delay: −$46K on 119 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 30%–47%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$46K
return −18.2%
Settled bets
119
$253K staked
Won
37.8%
95% range 30%–47%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 42 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$40K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$950
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$5.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY Denis Shapovalov
@ 40¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov |
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Kimberly Birrell
@ 37¢
China Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Kimberly Birrell |
China Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Kimberly Birrell | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Xinran Sun
@ 57¢
China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa |
China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Kamilla Rakhimova
@ 99.9¢
China Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Leylah Fernandez |
China Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Leylah Fernandez | $1.7K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Quentin Halys
@ 52¢
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys |
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys | $1.2K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Barbora Krejcikova
@ 59¢
Singapore Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Anna-Lena Friedsam |
Singapore Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Anna-Lena Friedsam | $1.1K |
| Sep 22 | SELL Barbora Krejcikova
@ 48¢
Singapore Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Anna-Lena Friedsam |
Singapore Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Anna-Lena Friedsam | $1.1K |
| Sep 8 | SELL Over 2.5
@ 99.9¢
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 |
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.