Sophisticated-Gadget
Skill vs luck
Sophisticated-Gadget on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$5.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 30, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Sophisticated-Gadget: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 30, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xfe728eac39de9ff73d68a073f8c2cd897f6ac936. Data CC BY 4.0.
Sophisticated-Gadget: +$5.7K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 17 – Oct 1
- +$5.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | BUY Yes @ 21¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? ↗ | $8.7K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Yes @ 35¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $3.0K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.