Icy-Hellcat-Lot

0xfdc8ce613812090420010e8193507160fd8dc678

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Icy-Hellcat-Lot: −$4.8K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 27%–65%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$4.8K
return −18.4%
Settled bets
22
$26K staked
Won
45.5%
95% range 27%–65%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$4.9K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$436
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$567
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 24 BUY Jaime Faria @ 47¢
Hangzhou Open: Jaime Faria vs Terence Atmane
Hangzhou Open: Jaime Faria vs Terence Atmane $1.5K
Sep 24 BUY Yeon-Woo Ku @ 54¢
Korea Open: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Gabriela Ruse
Korea Open: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Gabriela Ruse $1.2K
Sep 24 SELL Joaquin Aguilar @ 99.9¢
Buenos Aires 2: Francisco Comesana vs Joaquin Aguilar
Buenos Aires 2: Francisco Comesana vs Joaquin Aguilar $2.0K
Sep 11 BUY Anna Blinkova @ 74¢
Barranquilla: Julia Riera vs Anna Blinkova
Barranquilla: Julia Riera vs Anna Blinkova $1.6K
Sep 8 BUY San Francisco Giants @ 61¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants $1.0K
Sep 8 BUY Arthur Gea @ 52¢
US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp
US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp $1.5K
Sep 8 BUY Botic van de Zandschulp @ 72¢
US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp
US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp $1.0K
Sep 8 SELL Botic van de Zandschulp @ 65¢
US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp
US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed