Big-Hearted-Geek
Skill vs luck
Big-Hearted-Geek on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit −$489. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Big-Hearted-Geek: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xfc8b45e8912b2078686735a0c105d9252adb1d86. Data CC BY 4.0.
Big-Hearted-Geek: −$489 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$489
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Rockets @ 60¢ | Rockets vs. Hawks ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Rizvan Kuniev @ 45¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Dominick Reyes
@ 99.9¢
UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) |
UFC 333: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) | $1.5K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Grant Dawson @ 99.9¢ | UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims) ↗ | $1.3K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?