Decent-Armrest

0xfc25f141ed27bb1787338d2c4e7f51e3a15e1f7f

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$95K
return −5.6%
Settled bets
189
$1.71M staked
Won
94.2%
95% range 90%–97%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 188 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$40K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$9.4K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$45K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 99.9¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage $21K
Oct 7 Bought Shopify Rebellion at 96¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner $1.3K
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 99¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner $2.8K
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 99.85¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner $12K
Oct 7 Bought Utah at 99.9¢
Utah vs. Devils
Utah vs. Devils $1.1K
Oct 6 Bought Team Vitality at 99.9¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
LoL: Team Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage $8.5K
Oct 6 Bought Under at 99.81¢
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5 $1.1K
Oct 6 Bought 76ers at 99.9¢
Knicks vs. 76ers
Knicks vs. 76ers $7.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed