Educated-Stonework

0xf5f92940519a72da460b1c2a606bc1230f0e87b0

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Educated-Stonework: +$82K on 41 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 51% (95% range 37%–66%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$82K
return +18.8%
Settled bets
41
$437K staked
Won
51.2%
95% range 37%–66%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 41 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$97K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$15K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 13 BUY Yes @ 36¢
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-09-12?
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-09-12? $16K
Sep 13 BUY Yes @ 34¢
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-12?
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-12? $2.7K
Sep 13 BUY Over @ 59¢
Real Salt Lake vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5
Real Salt Lake vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 $34K
Sep 12 BUY Yes @ 46¢
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-09-12?
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-09-12? $3.5K
Sep 12 BUY Yes @ 45¢
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-09-12?
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-09-12? $4.3K
Sep 12 BUY Lommel SK @ 43¢
Spread: Union Saint-Gilloise (-1.5)
Spread: Union Saint-Gilloise (-1.5) $1.2K
Sep 12 BUY Over @ 47¢
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 $1.4K
Sep 9 BUY No @ 59¢
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-09-09?
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-09-09? $4.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed