Clueless-Variant-Porch
Skill vs luck
Clueless-Variant-Porch on Polymarket: 10 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 24%–76%) · profit −$3.1K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Clueless-Variant-Porch: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf317d641f3c2b0bde325d33f7c9977c162189445. Data CC BY 4.0.
Clueless-Variant-Porch: −$3.1K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 24%–76%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- −$3.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5 |
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5 | $1.5K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5 |
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5 | $1.5K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Chiefs @ 38¢ | Chiefs vs. Broncos ↗ | $1.0K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Broncos @ 38¢ | Chiefs vs. Broncos ↗ | $1.1K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Over
@ 49¢
Chargers vs. Rams: O/U 38.5 |
Chargers vs. Rams: O/U 38.5 | $1.5K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Rams
@ 54¢
Spread: Chargers (-1.5) |
Spread: Chargers (-1.5) | $1.5K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Dolphins
@ 55¢
Spread: Patriots (-10.5) |
Spread: Patriots (-10.5) | $1.2K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Under
@ 50¢
Titans vs. Bengals: O/U 58.5 |
Titans vs. Bengals: O/U 58.5 | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.