Ethical-Poisoning-Dozen
Skill vs luck
Ethical-Poisoning-Dozen on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit −$9.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 30, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ethical-Poisoning-Dozen: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 30, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf2660915cac9e356ba254a839f32c70baf2e3737. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ethical-Poisoning-Dozen: −$9.8K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 16 – Oct 30
- −$9.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 81¢ | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 81¢ | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 73¢ | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 76¢ | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 72¢ | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 29 | BUY CTBC Flying Oyster @ 85¢ | LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $4.5K |
| Oct 29 | BUY CTBC Flying Oyster @ 89¢ | LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $4.7K |
| Oct 29 | BUY CTBC Flying Oyster @ 75¢ | LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.