Monthly-Campus

0xf148f9acb3d2b140792640b92dffea6bb2550b4f

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Monthly-Campus: −$1.6K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 31% (95% range 14%–56%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$1.6K
return −10.4%
Settled bets
16
$15K staked
Won
31.2%
95% range 14%–56%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$1.6K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Aug 25 BUY Renata Zarazua @ 54¢
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazua
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazua $1.6K
Aug 24 BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova @ 54¢
Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova
Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova $2.3K
Aug 24 SELL Maya Joint @ 99.9¢
Monterrey Open, Qualification: Maya Joint vs Yulia Putintseva
Monterrey Open, Qualification: Maya Joint vs Yulia Putintseva $3.1K
Aug 23 BUY Jessica Pegula @ 32¢
Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula $1.1K
Aug 23 BUY Under @ 52¢
Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5
Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 $1.1K
Aug 23 BUY TEAM VISION @ 53¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs $1.1K
Aug 23 BUY Team Spirit @ 41¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner $1.1K
Aug 23 SELL TEAM VISION @ 48¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner $1.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed