Fat-Diaper
0xf0f0840cdc0eafef011c0173544b1fde710d26ed
Fat-Diaper: +$3.6K on 28 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 39% (95% range 24%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$3.6K
return +18.1%
Settled bets
28
$20K staked
Won
39.3%
95% range 24%–58%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$1.1K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$1.7K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$839
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | SELL Team Yandex
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner | $1.2K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Pipsqueak+4
@ 98¢
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 68¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner | $1.7K |
| Sep 20 | SELL 1win
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: 1win vs Hokori - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs Hokori - Game 2 Winner | $1.6K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Team Cobra
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Team Cobra - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Team Cobra - Game 2 Winner | $1.6K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Pipsqueak+4
@ 97¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner | $1.9K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Conventus Stellarum
@ 78¢
Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage |
Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | $1.9K |
| Sep 19 | SELL GamerLegion
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Cobra - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Cobra - Game 2 Winner | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.