Metallic-Ashtray
0xf0b6a8ebfa3a626337cc45e8eed30eaafb182fef
Metallic-Ashtray: −$26K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 39%–86%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$26K
return −9.5%
Settled bets
12
$276K staked
Won
66.7%
95% range 39%–86%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$21K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$5.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | BUY Spirit
@ 64¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $5.6K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Lynn Vision
@ 89¢
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Vitalem Aerem (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #2 Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Vitalem Aerem (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #2 Playoffs | $2.4K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Phantom
@ 45¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C | $2.0K |
| Sep 23 | BUY 100 Thieves
@ 82¢
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C |
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C | $3.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Vitality
@ 68¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $48K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Vitality
@ 77¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $50K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Vitality
@ 69¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $20K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Movistar KOI
@ 63¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs |
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs | $4.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.